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Is a New Recession Coming?

26.05.2014
U.S. Department of Commerce: Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 0.1 percent in the first quarter… In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.6 percent.
Forbes: Recession And Bear Market Ahead?
The almost unanimous view of economists just two months ago was that the U.S. economy would strengthen and finally have a real recovery this year. Earlier this year, the consensus was that GDP growth in the first quarter would be 2.5%-3%. Some estimates of Wall Street were for 4%-4.5% growth.
In the meantime, the official first quarter growth estimate has come in at a miniscule 0.1% growth. Oh yes, “it was the weather” they say.
But don’t we have winter every year? When I was in graduate school, I had a couple of friends who had retail shops. I remember that they constantly used excuses for their stores’ business being bad: “it was too hot. It was too cold. It was raining and people stayed home. It was great weather so people went to the beach. It was a holiday and people went on trips, and it was not a holiday so people worked.”
Economists today remind me of that. My view on disappointing economic growth was and is simple: Washington is making it increasingly more difficult for businesses to do business. The trend is in the wrong direction. Large U.S. firms continue to move to other countries to escape the very high taxes and regulations in the U.S. Small companies probably spend more time on compliance than on making their business grow.
0"] John Williams: “We Are on the Brink of Disaster”
As the renewed downturn gains wider acceptance or wider recognition, that will intensify the selling pressure. When someone starts selling, it’s going to be a race for the door, and I am looking for a dollar selling panic to be the trigger for the onset of hyperinflation. What we are seeing in inflation now is a pickup in inflation, but it’s not a hyperinflation. Massive dollar selling–that will be the trigger for the hyperinflation.
All the projections on the budget deficit are based on positive economic growth going forward. With the ongoing contraction, you’ll see a much worse budget deficit. It’s going to do bad things to the banking system. The Fed is going to be easing, and they’ll say they are easing to stimulate the economy; but in reality, they’ll be doing this to prop up the banking system. The rest of the world sees this and they don’t want to hold the dollar, and they will sell off the dollar. The Fed is going to have to come in and prop up the system until it falls apart.
Virtual Repeat of 2007-08 Plunge Into The Great Recession
Consumers were downgrading their shopping impulses in 2008 from more expensive outfits to bare bones essentials. In other words, the Great Recession almost benefitted Wal-Mart by shifting the whole retail scale toward “cheap.” Now, in 2013 and 2014, they can’t even get away with that. It’s almost as if the country and economic system have grown far poorer throughout this “recovery.”
[Our Comment] As we can see, many economists, after analyzing the latest statistics, predict that the U.S. (and the world) economy will go into recession already this year. Of course, these economists might not be right. Be that as it may, the modern economy, built on the revaluation of unsecured financial assets will always be characterized by very high volatility.
Recession - is blowing bubbles on the financial markets. The Federal Reserve's policy of "quantitative easing"(simply - printing money), on the one hand, and the U.S.’s federal government unlimited borrowing money to cover the budget deficit, on the other hand, constantly pump the market with unsecured assets. And the recession - it's just a natural response of the market to their policies (as well as high temperature is the body's response to the penetration of a virus).
Maybe we should move to a new economy where the support will be provided not to the financial institutions but to the working citizens?
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